The first is around 0.336% or 1 out of 297.5.
The second is 1.585% or 1 out of around 63.018
Both allow for possibility of 2 sets of 4 of kind. I did not calculate the probability of exactly 1 set of 4 of kind. Also did the calculations for any four of a kind, if you are looking for specifically four 5s or four 3s, then divide/multiply (percentage/odds) the above numbers by 13.
More math: for the first scenario there’s a 50% chance you will see the above scenario after a sequence of around 205 games. For the second scenario 50% chance every sequence of 43 games.
Assumptions/question being answered:
1st scenario is, given 8 open cards what is the probability of at least 1 four of a kind among the 8 cards.
2nd scenario, given 11 open cards, what is the probability of at least 1 four of a kind showing.
This game is rigged. Getting worse all the time. Worse than casinos in Vegas. I’ve been playing for around 5 years and believe me, it’s much, much harder to win a game. Watch and see how many times, at the end of a game, you get multiples of the same card. For instance, I will have 4 cards left, 2 cards up covering 2 cards down. Say, a 5 and a jack. I get the 5 off, there’s another 5. I remove the jack, and wow, another jack! Am planning to quit. Too many problems in the game, freezing, booting, cards not turning over. All they seem to care about is adding more graphics and pop-ups, which cause a lot of the problems.
I mean, seriously, Poi jumping across your cards because you hit the streaks? You can’t see the cards and you’re still playing. That hoopla when you’re about to hit last card, causing you to have to hit the last card 2-3 times before it will go down, is just plain dumb. It didn’t always do that but they refuse to get rid of it.
Sale ads constantly popping up, pop-ups about special perk, club competition, mini tikis…It’s just annoying. Screws up your rhythm in the game.
Every time they make a change in this game, it causes something else to go wrong. They just keep making the games harder to win and giving less and less. New players now only get 5k friends coins every 4 hours instead of 15k. Now tell me, how can they compete against people getting around 300k per week more than them? Totally ludicrous. They obviously think it will make people buy coins. I think new players, especially once they hit the 3,000 games, will just get frustrated and quit.
I will leave the odds calculations to you, but I agree that the duplication of cards is happening too often. I’m also having issues with the cards “freezing” or not playing and having to hit the last card or two a few times to get it to play. When my game completely freezes and I contact support, I am always given the excuse it must be my internet connection. Yeah right!!
I agree the multiple pop ups are interfering with the game, along with extra ads. If I am on a timer or for example on a bonus login of 30 minutes free tiki, why all the extra pop ups? I am losing valuable time to these annoying banners and animations. If I am out of plays for a competition, why is there a banner on my screen telling me to go play?
Far too many animations that are making me ready to find another tripeaks game too.
Delivering a 4-of a kind is one of the many tricks that Tripeaks uses to make you lose. However, keep in mind that if the game was based purely on a single 52-card deck, shuffled randomly, you wouldn’t even win 10% of the games you win now, based on how the various levels are configured and dealt. So, it’s rigged both ways, to control how often you win AND lose.
I’ve noticed if I don’t go in for several hours, the first 2-3 games I tend to win easily. Another ploy to sucker you back in.
And new players are forced to watch 5 videos intermittently after joining game for the day (about 1 every 2-3 games). That’s annoying, since the daily reward pops up when you open for first time of the day. So if have 30 minutes free play, have to deal with forced videos and pop-up sale ads. Sometimes I swear those people must be nuts or sadists. They obviously don’t realize that if people get frustrated enough, they’ll quit. You catch more flies with sugar than with vinegar. This game is full of p$ss and vinegar.
I won’t deny that winning games in general is getting harder and harder, but to strategically succeed in this Game, is getting easier and easier for me.for example, I’m in a good situation. I found a strong club that isn’t focused on all.the club quests, just the ones I happen to care about, so I’m ending up a top 5 club pts player and still getting perk 6 on Saturdays and I look good to the club cause I’m usually #1 club points accumulater 24 hrs after reset in this club by tactically using the right blend of boosters, and once perk 6 is attained i spend the rest of the week playing the “right” games and by then I should have more boosters, for the most and coins than when I first started out.
The one broken aspect about this game is the less you play the better will you do, above a certain a minimum. YOu just need to find the right club where you dont have to do too much while still doing enough to look successful with the right mix of strategy.
Heres a sample strategic tip: Right off the bat, if you’re generally not a winning player avoid all clubs that requires you to max all club quests that includes Red Stars. Thats a bad club to be in. There many clubs, even many legend clubs that skip red star quests.
Agree that games are harder and harder to win without buying more cards. Also, hate all the ads!
It really bothers me that some get 3x coins as me it’s not fair at all
Yeah my game glitches and freezes constantly and my internet is awesome
These four a kind scenarios seem to happen every other game it seems the pics were just an example but it happens a lot like 3 three of a kinds etc
My club stopped requiring any club quests but Tributes and 4k club points. Play 95 games is ludicrous. Eventually, the other CQ requirements go down to a reasonable amount and we get them, but they are not a bootable offense. But I’ll bet you’re still getting 15k friends coins every 4 hours. Try it with only 5k.
This game threw me out a while back for unknown reason (happened to some others I know as well). Had to start over like I was new player. Started getting only the 5k friends coins. It sucks. When it took me out, I had over 1.5M coins, 55,000 gems and 10 unopened large gift boxes from double gift boxes. Because that suddenly happened to others I know, I think this was intentional.
After their last game changes recently, I can’t get into game on either of my devices, or if I do, nothing will open or I get weird pop-up messages. Nothing wrong with my internet connection (can go on browser just fine). First had the problem on one device but not the other, now the problem is on both. They have entirely too many huge graphics popping up. When you’re trying to log on for the first time of the day, the daily reward is trying to open AND a large sale ad is also. Then the new scavenger hunt is waiting to pop in also (those are coin suckers btw). It’s too much with the game trying to boot up. But you can’t tell those morons anything. They obviously love the pop-up crap. I doubt any of them bother to play the game or they would see how annoying it all is.
Due a phone issue that last for a little while, I too had to start over and received a friend’s center that was only giving put 5k coins. Since I knew the phone issue was only to be a temporary situation, I decided to minimize advancement in the game and within 6 weeks had 2 millions coins and basically 40 of each booster, i was also in a legend team by week 4.
Then I tried a relatives old phone that originally got me.into game that only advanced to level 30, with like 20k coins. That still had 15k friends center, joined a diamond team immediately and next day jumped to a legend team and after 8 weeks of play had 5.5 million coins using a similar playing style. The only issue with this… it got boring. So for sure the 15 vs 5k coins is a significant edge on the order of 40k a day but depending on how you play not fatal.
Yesteday after my post, I decided to look out for repeated 4 of a kinds and yes they are popping out a lot more frequently that randomness would indicate. For me thats another “enjoyable ( in a masochistic way)” challenge to the game, succeed despite the games more obvious attempts to make the game harder.
Also my current team has the exact same requirements, I wonder if we’re in the same club ! Lol.
I was a co leader on a top 10 legend league for a couple of years. So I’m a good player. Having a little challenge is fine but it would be more enjoyable if you could win a normal amount of games like we used to years ago. They keep stacking the deck worse and worse over the years. Those red and black cards that pop up occasionally. I would say it’s the wrong color from your cards 90% of the time. That’s not random, it’s programmed.
I agree. I have an older IPad mini and it just won’t accept all the pop ups. I can barely sign on ! I now have 78 rewards I can’t open and support says I can’t transfer to another device unless I join Facebook!!!
I have bought lots of coins and really frustrated with their attitude
You can link it through your apple account instead of facebook and then you can play on another device.
I totally agree with you. Tired of the pop up ads, I get kicked off the game constantly. Have experienced all of the same problems you have and it is getting worse. Takes the fun out of it. I do not want to have to buy lots of extra cards or use 3 boosters and on one game in competition either.
Now why couldn’t we have had this kind of math question in university?lol
OMG, then just stop playing the game !If its no longer fun and is causing you such distress then just don’t play and find something you enjoy! 